Derby day exams: Why this weekend could be the defining moment for SA’s URC quartet

As the Lions, Sharks, Bulls, and Stormers approach the weekend’s derbies, their situation is not unlike the last week of exams before break-up day and a well-earned holiday.

But barring drawn games — which are actually not that unlikely — the February vacation will start on a sour note for two of the four teams.

From an overall South African rugby point of view, though, the ideal scenario would be a win for the Sharks in Durban and a win for the Bulls in Johannesburg. That would likely elevate those teams into the coveted top eight, where they will join the Lions and Stormers — whatever the results at Kings Park and Ellis Park, those two teams will remain in the top eight.

Since the URC began in the 2021-2022 season, the overall SA picture would never have looked as rosy if all four local teams were in the top eight one round past the competition’s halfway mark.

This scenario is possible thanks to the recent revivals at the Sharks and Bulls; the storming start to the URC by the Capetonians; and the uncustomary good form of the Lions, who have never made the top eight (and the play-offs) in the history of the tournament.

Last week’s away wins for the Bulls and the Sharks, and the three points earned by the Lions in their match in Wales, have strengthened South Africa’s overall position. A Bulls win at Ellis Park could see them climb from ninth place into the top eight. The seventh-placed Lions will be in the top eight, whether they win or lose. It is the same for the Stormers, who are in a lofty second place on the points table.

Of course, there are URC games in Europe that will influence how high the Sharks and Bulls can climb the URC ladder. Of importance to the South African cause is the Welsh derby between the Dragons and the Ospreys. The fast-improving Dragons (they were last season’s wooden-spoonists) are even money at the bookies to beat the Ospreys, but if the latter side get full points out of the fixture, it would block the Sharks’ entry into the top eight.

That match would also affect the Bulls, who are two places above the 11th-placed Sharks, but there is only one log point between them. Another game that the Sharks and Bulls will be keeping an eye on is the Leinster-Edinburgh clash — if the Scottish team wins, they would be in a better position than the Sharks, even if the Durbanites win in Durban.

An important and welcome consideration for the South African teams is that they have played one less match than most of the European teams (nine as opposed to 10). But even with a game in hand, the SA teams would love the psychological boost of going into the February break in play-off territory.

WEEKEND URC FIXTURES

Benetton v Scarlets (Treviso, Friday 9.45pm)

Glasgow Warriors v Munster (Glasgow, Friday 9.45pm)

Lions v Bulls (Johannesburg, Saturday 2.30pm)

Sharks v Stormers (Durban, Saturday 5pm)

Zebre v Connacht (Parma, Saturday 5pm)

Leinster v Edinburgh (Dublin, Saturday 7.30pm)

Ospreys v Dragons (Swansea, Saturday 9.45pm)

Ulster v Cardiff (Belfast, Saturday 9.45pm)