Highlanders ready to peak

Trying to figure out who is going to lift the Vodacom Super 12 trophy on the last weekend of May is a hazardous process fraught with all sorts of obstacles.

For the sake of getting shot down, I'm going to stick my neck out and opt for the Highlanders, beaten finalists last time out, to deny the Crusaders an unprecedented hat-trick of wins and ensure that the trophy remains in New Zealand for the fifth consecutive year.

The Crusaders are sure to be there too. So too will John Connolly's hard-nosed Queens-landers. The biggest dangers to New Zealand dominance ought to come from the perennially underachieving Waratahs while the Stormers and Sharks, if their halfbacks and back-row can strike up an understanding, should be worth putting some money on.

But so much can happen in the next three months to derail those predictions. Injuries, loss of form, inconsistent refereeing decisions or just that good old-fashioned luck emanating from a fortuitous bounce of the ball. These factors all play considerable parts in determining who will scale the summit of the world's most exacting rugby championship.

Never mind the harsh reality that reputations count for nothing and the fact that on any given day the top side can be taken to the cleaners by any one of the strugglers.

I expect South African sides to fare better than in previous seasons, with the Sharks and Stormers challenging for semifinal places - and the Cats and Bulls leaving others to fight for the dubious privilege of finishing as wooden spoonists.

The arrival of Brendan Venter in the Stormers' midfield should assist in providing more opportunities for their dangerous outside backs.

However, coach Alan Solomons will be looking for more authoritative displays from his halfbacks to build on the solid platform created up front if they are to build on last season's success story.

The Cats side, packed with stars of the future, are sure to down a few of the more fancied sides - though it may be a year too soon to expect Laurie Mains to work wonders at this level.

Don't expect the Bulls to be transformed into championship contenders. Though they are always a difficult proposition at Loftus, the suspect fitness of their most influential players like Ruben Kruger, Os du Randt, Joost van der Westhuizen and Jannie de Beer leaves them vulnerable in a competition where they face one hungry side after another with little respite.

In Australia, the Reds and the Brumbies should again be ultra-competitive - but expect a vastly improved showing from the Waratahs, now that they have been placed under the guidance of former Wallaby Under-21 coach Ian Kennedy.

The Kiwis always pose a powerful challenge, although the aura of the Blues has gone until the next wave has regrouped, and former All Blacks skipper Graham Mourie will be hoping that his big-name backs can revive a Hurricanes' challenge that has faltered in the last two seasons.

What makes the Highlanders so good? They are blessed with the nucleus of talented players who have graduated through the ranks of the Otago provincial side from an early age.

Their pack has shown an ability to perform the basics well while also retaining that rare quality of being able to conjure up tries from nothing when they need to. More importantly, they also look like they're enjoying themselves.

Hopefully, Peter Sloane, who has taken over the coaching reins from Tony Gilbert (now the All Blacks assistant coach) will show the benefits from his stint as assistant coach of the Crusaders in 1997 and 1998.

Their early results in the Super 10, forerunner to this event, were ordinary - finishing fifth third and fourth (out of five) in their pool.

They could only manage eighth in the inaugural Super 12 series in 1996 and struck rock bottom the following year, slumping to 12th and suffering a humiliating 75-43 trouncing by the Sharks at King's Park.

But those tender-faced youths - including Taine Randell, Josh Kronfeld, Carl Hoeft, Anton Oliver, Kees Meeuws and Jeff Wilson - are older and wiser.

They've been bolstered by the most complete backline around - halfbacks Byron Kelleher and Tony Brown complement a

brilliant midfield partnership of Pita Alatini and Jeremy Stanley (don't forget Romi Ropati either) - no wonder they advanced to fourth and second place in the last two seasons.

To scale the summit they'll have to get past the Crusaders, who epitomise the selfless work ethic. New coach Robbie Deans has a rugged pack of forwards, Andrew Mehrtens to call the shots from flyhalf and a fit-again Mark Mayerhofler to get the best out of his midfield colleague Daryl Gibson.