Predictably, the 'experts' got it wrong

Lots of lessons will have been learnt from the Rugby World Cup, but perhaps the most significant lesson of all has been that making predictions appears to have made more chumps out of the so-called experts than the World Cup has created champions.

With the exception of some of the minnows versus giants games, virtually every expert was found out during the course of the competition. (Even some of the giants versus minnows games caught the experts off-guard with world-record defeats not always the order of the day, with some of the lesser teams pulling off stirring rearguard actions.)

Who would have imagined that the Springboks would play two scoreless half-hour sessions against virtually the two weakest teams - Uruguay and Spain? Before each game most experts predicted at least 20 to 30 points for each half-hour played.

France, the delightful surprise of the competition, could not reasonably have expected to have done as well as they did. Only a blinkered, fanatical supporter could have predicted that the French would be so brilliant.

The experts and the armchair authorities all knew before the World Cup began that France's impact on the competition would not be a significant one. Seemingly in disarray, demotivated, and with a coach whose days we all knew were numbered, the Five Nations wooden-spoonists were expected to survive until the semifinal but not beyond, this thanks to an extremely favourable draw. At worst, it was felt that the French would stumble against some motivated lesser team. The French, initially, didn't disappoint, contriving to come close to losing to the Fijians, and allowing the Argentinians to look really quite good and expose huge flaws in their game. Indeed, the Fijians can feel rightly aggrieved that the referee's whistle denied them the chance to progress to the quarterfinals rather than the French.

The experts convinced us all that the French journey to glory would end when they met the tournament favourites, New Zealand, in the semifinal. They had done well for the northern hemisphere and for themselves, but against the All Blacks there was no place to hide. The only debate was by what massive margin they would lose, as the conservative experts predicted a twenty-point margin.

Our own television commentary team smilingly predicted a crushing defeat for the French. At the start of last weekend the only question in the minds of the experts was who would meet New Zealand in the final, South Africa or Australia?

By Monday morning, the experts had been shown to be anything but. New Zealanders, en masse, are depressed and devastated. More than any other mighty nation they had been convinced that their only difficult game would be the final.

With all the propaganda circulating about the All Black's bullet-proof, tackle-proof jerseys, their black jumbo jet and their team of stars, no-one had considered that they would finish fourth in the competition.

Perhaps I, and their adoring fans back in New Zealand should have taken note that Scotland scored two tries against them and, until Jonah Lomu sprang to life, England had held them at bay for a considerable part of the match. But then the experts convinced us all that the game against Scotland was played at three-quarter throttle, that the All Blacks did just enough to win and no more, and that the rain and mud made it difficult for them to really shine.

At that point, however, the tournament had certainly proved the experts wrong on several occasions. Samoa's victory over Wales was one incident; South Africa's convincing defeat of England another. The English press, in particular, wrote South Africa off. We were given no chance against the new English mean-machine and our style of play was condemned as out of date, predictable and ponderous.

Even our tight five were written off as being a thing of the past. In many cases the experts were so convincing that many South Africans were resigned to the fact that the All Whites would beat us. So it was with a mixture of surprise and delight that we greeted the fine result against England.

A few months ago, the result against England would have been expected, not treated as a surprise.

In the end it all boils down to that old adage, "Don't believe everything you read in the newspapers", or hear on the radio or see on the television. This should continue down to the experts but don't become fanatical disciples of their word. From the quarterfinals on, in a competition such as the rugby World Cup, every game is a final and any team can play either brilliantly or poorly.

When it comes to the experts, the only forecast that we should believe is that they will invariably get it wrong.