Germany’s coalition breakdown offers lessons for GNU
by Kira Alberts
The recent breakdown of Germany's so-called “traffic light coalition” — an alliance between the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Alliance 90/The Greens (the Greens), and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) formed after the 2021 elections — wasn’t entirely unexpected.
The coalition, regarded in its early days as a model of collaborative governance, had been unravelling for months under the weight of internal divisions, external crises, and mounting voter discontent and apathy.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's sacking of Finance Minister Christian Lindner was the final nail in the coffin, prompting the FDP to withdraw from the government entirely.
While often hailed as models of compromise and cooperation, coalition governments can quickly become battlegrounds for ideological clashes when the political stakes rise and politicians place party over country. The breakdown of Germany's coalition highlights fundamental challenges inherent in such alliances.
From the outset, the coalition partners seemed ill-matched. The SPD and Greens leaned towards expansive social policies and climate initiatives, while the fiscally conservative FDP demanded strict budgetary discipline. These contradictions were initially papered over with bold promises, such as advancing climate goals and modernising Germany’s welfare state. But the cohesion soon gave way under the pressure of successive crises: a lingering pandemic, ongoing refugee crisis, and mounting economic woes.
Cracks widened when budget disagreements resurfaced, exacerbated by a constitutional court ruling that invalidated the reallocation of COVID-era funds for climate initiatives. The FDP’s repeated efforts to distance itself from unpopular coalition decisions only deepened mistrust among the partners. By the time the government faced humiliating losses in recent regional elections, the coalition’s unpopularity was undeniable.
The coalition’s problems reflects more than just the failure of the parties to govern together. It exposes a deeper malaise within Germany’s political system. Voter apathy is at an all-time high, with surveys indicating record levels of disillusionment towards political parties. Scholz’s coalition became one of the most unpopular in German history, as citizens increasingly viewed it as paralysed by infighting and incapable of addressing the country’s pressing challenges.
In this climate, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained significant traction, capitalising on public frustrations and presenting itself as a disruptive alternative. While still largely ostracised from mainstream politics, the AfD’s steady rise underscores the consequences of failing to address public disillusionment with the status quo. The failure of the Scholz coalition underscores the delicate balancing act required in modern coalition governance, one that Germany, for all its experience, could not maintain.
Germany’s coalition demise sends ripples far beyond its borders, challenging the romanticised view of coalition politics as a democratic ideal. For many countries grappling with polarised electorates, coalitions often seem like the only viable path forward. Yet the German example demonstrates that coalition governments, no matter how well-intentioned, are not immune to paralysis and breakdown.
Take South Africa, where a Government of National Unity (GNU) coalition took power earlier this year. Formed after a fiercely contested election, and 30 years of ANC dominance, the coalition aims to bridge deep political and social divides. It includes parties with starkly different ideologies, much like the German model. However, Germany's recent experience serves as a cautionary tale: ideological diversity within coalitions may appear as a strength on paper, but it becomes a liability without robust mechanisms to manage conflict.
The GNU faces its own pressures. The economic challenges of inequality, energy crises, and unemployment mirror some of Germany's struggles, albeit magnified in severity. And just as Germany’s “traffic light coalition” lost voter trust through infighting, the GNU must tread carefully to avoid similar pitfalls.
So, what’s the way forward for coalition governments globally? If Germany’s implosion teaches us anything, it’s that strong leadership and clear conflict resolution mechanisms are non-negotiable. Coalitions must go beyond rhetoric about “unity” and instead foster a genuine culture of collaboration. Transparency in decision-making, consistency in messaging, and mechanisms to manage ideological disputes are critical.
For South Africa, this is an opportunity to draw lessons early. A coalition government should prioritise defining shared goals that resonate with its citizens, rather than simply maintaining power for its own sake. While the allure of compromise-driven governance remains strong, its execution must be grounded in pragmatism rather than idealism.
The collapse of the German collation is not the end for coalitions, but it is a stark reminder of their limitations. Coalitions may be a necessity in our divided political age, but their success depends on leaders willing to put national interest above party politics, a lesson every aspiring coalition government, including our own GNU, should take to heart.
Alberts is a master's student in Political Science and a research associate at the Centre for Research on Democracy (CREDO) at Stellenbosch University. She writes in her personal capacity.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.
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