‘It’s a flop’: Dr Pali Lehohla says National Development Plan and other government plans failed dismally

Former statistician-general of South Africa, Dr Pali Lehohla, warned that the rising levels of inequality and lack of economic opportunity, particularly among the majority of South Africans, who are black people, is a ticking time bomb for the country.

IOL spoke to Lehohla regarding the state of affairs in South Africa, as evidenced by figures which show rising unemployment and worsening levels of poverty, especially among young people.

Lehohla said the different policy documents the government has had, including the National Development Plan, which are meant to strategically address the problems that bedevil the nation, are not worth the paper they were written on.

“The problem is that the instruments do not have future proofs. A plan is something which says I intend to do the following, that is a plan. First, it starts with an intention and secondly, it has to marshal evidence around your intentions. Because it is built for the future, it must have possible things that might happen and what the outcome might be,” he said.

“Now, you have an intention but you do not have the evidence and you do not have a model-based process by which you will implement it. There are two items which make a plan a plan. By having a future proof, it simply means you have a tactical response as well as a strategic response to things as they evolve,” said Lehohla.

“That is the weakness in our systems. They are based on back of the envelope calculations. It is a problem. The second weakness which is a major one, is that the systems can only project outputs. So when the minister of finance stands there to give a speech, he will tell you what the [gross domestic product] GDP or prices might look like in another two years. Those are outputs. They do not have the capacity to look at impact.”

He said government does not have a clear assessment on how poverty, inequality and unemployment are being impacted by its interventions across the country.

“They cannot manage those variables. They are not part of the system. The National Development Plan has flopped. In fact, it is not a plan, it is an intention. It remains at the level of intention,” he said.

“What has it (the National Development Plan) delivered? The president has this economic advisory committee or commission – the people that advise him on economic policies,” said Lehohla.

“I cannot find what advisory they provided, or rather a meaningful advisory for me would be one that changes policy perspective, impact, and shows what the impact would be when certain things have happened. There is nothing of the sort.”

He said South Africa has suffered the burden of lack of economic leadership.

Lehohla said the impact of each government policy on multi-dimensional poverty across the country should be clearly identified in each ambitious policy.

“Government does not have that kind of instrument, or the desire to use that kind of instrument,” said Lehohla.

He said for black and coloured people who make 90% of South Africa’s population, “things have been stagnant but for the 10% things look very bright”.

He said on the racial profiles, the rate of inequality is staggering and therefore there is instability in the country.

“When 90% is unstable, the 10% cannot be stable. Under these circumstances there cannot be peace,” said Lehohla.

Last month, IOL reported that South Africa’s youth unemployment rate eased slightly in the third quarter of 2024, but millions of young people remain unemployed in a tough economic environment

The South African Youth Economic Council (Sayec), responding to the quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) released last month, warned that this is just not good enough.

“Youth unemployment is not just a social challenge, but an economic liability that undermines South Africa’s potential for growth and stability,” Sayec said in a statement.

Statistics South Africa data showed the youth unemployment rate easing slightly from 46.6% in the second quarter of 2024 to 45.5% in the third quarter of 2024.

The total number of unemployed youth (age 15 to 34) fell by 171,000 to 4.8 million while employed youth increased by 66,000 to 5.8 million.

Despite these improvements, the economic outlook for young South Africans remains challenging.

“Vulnerable youth, comprising those aged 15 to 24, remain the most disadvantaged segment when it comes to finding sustainable employment in this subdued economy,” said Investec economist Lara Hodes.

She noted that although the youth unemployment rate improved slightly, it remains critically elevated.

Hodes said: “Improving the level of and access to education is essential,” highlighting that unemployment among those with less than a matric certificate remains above 37%, while graduates face a lower, yet significant, unemployment rate of 9.8%.

IOL