Does repeating Grade 11 actually improve matric results?
A Stellenbosch University study questions the effectiveness of holding learners back in Grades 10 and 11, suggesting it may not enhance matric outcomes as previously believed.
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Holding learners back in Grade 10 and Grade 11 may not improve matric results as much as widely assumed, according to new research from Stellenbosch University that is raising questions about the value of high repetition rates before matric.
Economist Dr Rebecca Selkirk examined the relationship between Grade 11 repetition rates and matric pass rates in Western Cape schools between 2018 and 2021 as part of her doctoral research.
Her analysis found a positive link between higher Grade 11 repetition rates and stronger matric results. However, that relationship weakened significantly when repetition rates dropped sharply during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Selkirk said the findings suggest the role of repetition in improving matric outcomes may be less clear than often believed.
“We spend a lot of money on retaining learners in Grades 10 and 11, where repetition’s effectiveness is unclear and the associated drop-out risk is highest,” she said.
Before the pandemic, about 1.5 million learners repeated a grade each year across South Africa’s school system, roughly 12% of total enrolment. Around one-third of all repetition occurred in the years leading up to matric.
By the end of 2019, nearly a third of Grade 10 learners (31%) and almost a quarter of Grade 11 learners (24%) had repeated a grade.
Selkirk’s research suggests schools with higher Grade 11 repetition rates tended to record stronger matric pass rates. She said this could indicate that repeating the grade helps some learners improve their chances of passing matric, or that schools benefit by effectively “gatekeeping” access to the final year.
However, repetition rates in the Western Cape dropped sharply at the end of 2020, from about 12% to 6%, after pandemic-related leniency in promotion policies.
When Selkirk analysed matric results during that period, the link between repetition and matric performance became weaker in both size and statistical significance.
She also estimated what matric outcomes in 2020 and 2021 might have looked like had repetition rates remained at earlier levels.
A new Stellenbosch University study suggests high repetition rates in Grades 10 and 11 may not significantly improve matric outcomes, raising questions about the practice of holding learners back before their final school year.
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The results suggested that matric performance in 2021 was stronger than expected despite the lower repetition rates, particularly in less-resourced schools.
Selkirk said several factors could help explain this, including pandemic-era support programmes that may have helped struggling learners more effectively than repeating a grade.
“It is possible that pandemic-related support programmes more than compensated for any learning losses, and that this additional support was more beneficial than repetition for learners who would normally have repeated Grade 10 or 11,” she said.
Lower repetition rates could also have had positive effects, such as reducing class sizes and limiting the negative psychological impact sometimes associated with repeating a grade.
Selkirk noted that repetition rates in Grades 10 and 11 are already returning to levels seen before the pandemic.
“There is enough evidence to suggest that our high Grade 10 and 11 repetition rates may not be justified, and that alternatives to repetition could be equally or more beneficial to struggling learners,” she said.
She added that placing too much emphasis on matric pass rates could encourage schools to focus on strategies that boost results rather than improve learning outcomes.