Economic stability takes centre stage in Ramaphosa's upcoming SONA

President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to use his ninth State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Thursday to emphasise economic stability and policy continuity, rather than radical reform, as Cape Town prepares to host the high-profile event amid heightened security and road closures in the CBD.

Economists say the address is likely to focus on recent national economic gains, while acknowledging the global uncertainty that continues to weigh on growth — with implications for cities such as Cape Town that rely heavily on logistics, tourism and infrastructure efficiency.

According to Frank Blackmore, lead economist at KPMG South Africa, the President is expected to highlight government’s continued commitment to fiscal consolidation, a lower inflation target, a sovereign debt upgrade and improved growth prospects recorded towards the end of last year.

“He will likely sketch the geopolitical environment within which these gains were achieved,” Blackmore said. “The expectation is that government continues along the policy path set out in the medium-term budget policy statement.”

Blackmore said infrastructure development and maintenance would feature prominently in the address — an issue of particular relevance to the Western Cape, where constraints at the Port of Cape Town, transport networks and energy supply continue to affect business and job creation.

He added that logistics and energy reforms, including greater private-sector participation, were critical to unlocking growth in metros such as Cape Town, which serve as economic gateways for the region.

However, Blackmore said residents should not expect major policy shifts or ideological overhauls in the speech, noting that South Africa currently lacked the institutional capacity for radical reforms.

“I don’t think we’ll see ideas such as the nationalisation of banks or a sweeping rollout of National Health Insurance,” he said. “The focus will be on continuity and setting the stage for the budget later this month.”

While economists anticipate a measured approach, advocacy groups have urged the President to use SONA to announce bolder reforms, particularly in public procurement.

The Institute of Race Relations (IRR) has called on Ramaphosa to commit to value-for-money procurement reforms, arguing that improved efficiency could free up resources for service delivery and infrastructure investment in cities and provinces.

IRR chief executive officer John Endres said procurement reform could help address cost pressures facing households and businesses, including those in the Western Cape.

“The right of the President to address Parliament carries a responsibility to provide more than political messaging,” Endres said, adding that SONA 2026 offered an opportunity to signal pro-growth reform.

Blackmore said SONA should be viewed primarily as a signal to investors, ratings agencies and the public, with the real test of government’s intentions expected in the budget speech later this month.

“That’s where we’ll see whether commitments to growth, infrastructure, job creation and the social wage are backed by credible funding,” he said.

SONA 2026 will take place at Cape Town City Hall on Thursday, with traffic disruptions and road closures in parts of the CBD expected before, during and after the event.

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