La Niña's impact on South Africa's weather: What to expect this festive season

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued a warning for the 2025/26 festive season, alerting the public to potential weather risks linked to a weak La Niña climate pattern.

This forecast, covering December 2025 to April 2026, follows a year marked by severe storms and devastating floods. La Niña is characterised by cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt global weather patterns.

“Communities, decision-makers and all sectors of society (must be) adequately informed about the potential weather risks that may arise during this season and the months that follow,” SAWS emphasised in a statement on Wednesday.

The warning follows the recent unveiling of South Africa’s Early Warnings for All (EW4All) Roadmap, which aims to provide every individual with access to lifesaving weather and climate information by 2027.

The initiative comes after a series of severe weather events this year, including heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal Midlands that caused widespread flooding in the uMshwathi municipal area, and a destructive thunderstorm that affected Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo.

“Once again, the SAWS extends its deepest sympathies to the families and communities who lost loved ones during these tragic events,” the agency said, reflecting on the year’s losses, which also included over 100 fatalities in the Eastern Cape.

Saws’ seasonal climate outlook anticipates above-normal rainfall in north-eastern regions such as Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, and parts of North West and Free State.

“Climate model predictions suggest an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern parts of South Africa, particularly in the north-eastern summer rainfall regions.” 

Temperatures are expected to vary, with minimums above normal nationwide and maximums below normal in north-eastern areas due to cloud cover and rainfall, while parts of the south-west may experience above-normal maximum temperatures.

SAWS cautioned that: “The anticipated rainfall may bring positive impacts for water resources and agriculture, but it also raises the risk of localised flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas, informal settlements, and regions with poor drainage infrastructure.”

Looking specifically at the festive season, Saws predicts partly cloudy and warm-to-cool conditions with isolated to scattered showers over central and eastern areas.

“Thunderstorm activity is expected to occur primarily in the afternoons, although periods of increased moisture may result in morning showers in some areas,” the agency noted, warning that heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds may accompany some thundershowers.

SAWS urged vigilance and regular consultation of credible weather information.

“The public is strongly urged to take weather warnings seriously, as they play a critical role in reducing the risk of injury, loss of life or property damage,” the agency stressed.

The agency reiterated: “We wish everyone a safe, peaceful and enjoyable festive season, free from weather-related disasters, and look forward to continued cooperation in safeguarding lives and livelihoods across our country.”

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