The impact of Climate Change on food security in South Africa

As climate change continues to wreak havoc on South Africa’s agricultural landscape, the future of food security hangs in the balance. With predictions indicating a potential 50% decline in agricultural production by 2050, the spectre of hunger looms ever larger for the 18 million households, or roughly 21% of the population, who are currently grappling with food insecurity.

Recent studies forecast a 25% increase in maize yield variability due to shifting weather patterns, including reduced rainfall and soaring temperatures. As the staple food source for many low-income households, maize is already feeling the pinch, with prices climbing by 30% in recent years, exacerbated by the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity.

According to Roscoe van Wyk, a research fellow at Stellenbosch Business School, the agricultural sector must be restructured to effectively address these challenges. He argues that integrating enterprise development with climate adaptation strategies is crucial to ensuring that more people have access to adequate, affordable, and nutritious food.

“Growing the agricultural sector should be a key economic priority, particularly if we are to achieve the National Development Plan (NDP) goals of an integrated and inclusive rural economy and the creation of one million new jobs in agriculture by 2030,” van Wyk stresses.

Historical data indicates that agricultural productivity growth significantly reduces poverty, demonstrating that growth in this sector is often two to three times more effective than in others, such as mining or manufacturing. This is especially pertinent as rising food prices disproportionately affect low-income households that spend a considerable portion of their income on basic necessities.

Van Wyk’s research highlights a stark correlation: a mere 1% increase in food prices can diminish household welfare by over 20%, subsequently limiting access to essential services like healthcare and education. The progress made in reducing poverty levels since South Africa's transition to democracy is now reversing, a trend further exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic and intensifying climate impacts.

“Climate change is manifesting itself not only through decreasing rainfall and higher temperatures but also through extreme weather events, leading to floods and prolonged droughts,” van Wyk elaborates. These conditions wreak havoc on crop and livestock health, thereby disrupting the agricultural supply chain and driving prices upward.

Compounding the problem, crop production has failed to keep pace with population growth over the last two decades. As the population continues to grow, the prospects for alleviating food insecurity diminish further. Van Wyk insists that simply maintaining current agriculture levels will not suffice; improvements in productivity are essential to meet the needs of a burgeoning population while contending with climate challenges.

The link between food security and the agricultural value chain is profound, particularly in rural areas where poverty is most entrenched. Enhancing support for both large-scale commercial and small-scale subsistence farming can create a pathway out of poverty for many. “By empowering individuals to feed themselves, whether through gainful employment or viable farming, we can address the inequality gap and combat unemployment,” he claims.

Van Wyk advocates for a transformative approach to support small-scale farmers by merging enterprise development with sustainability. He argues that as these farmers often lack the resources for advanced agricultural technologies, financial backing must be coupled with education on climate adaptability and sustainable farming practices.

Moreover, he emphasises the importance of practical implementation of existing policies, as well as incentivising established farmers to mentor emerging counterparts. This cooperative model can pave the way for scaled-up production and increased employment opportunities as South Africa navigates an uncertain agricultural future.