Experts have weighed in on the possibility of the end of loadshedding. Experts have weighed in on the possibility of the end of loadshedding.
Image: Itumeleng English/IndependentNewspapers
South Africa’s energy crisis has been a major point of concern for the country’s economy, since the return of the dark-night also known as loadshedding.
Eskom announced level 6 loadshedding a week ago after a nearly year hiatus.
The power utility gradually brought it down to level 2, with power cuts continuing to impact everyday life.
The recent announcement of loadshedding again brought the Minister of Energy, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa’s, recent comments about ending load shedding by the end of March 2025 under the spotlight, with industry experts weighing in on the vision.
Many acknowledged the progress made but remain sceptical about achieving this ambitious goal in the short term.
Professor Vally Padayachee, a power and energy expert, shared his insights on the matter, emphasising that “if Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) as a collective reaches +-70% to +-75% then load shedding could potentially end.”
He pointed out that there is still significant work to be done before load shedding can be halted permanently.
He also highlighted “gaps in the maintenance” as a contributing factor to the ongoing load shedding.
Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa at a media briefing. Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa at a media briefing.
Image: Henk Kruger / Independent Newspapers
“Eskom generation is a complex engineering machinery and a complex engineering system and needs to perform at its highest level to avoid frequent forced outages,” he added.
Padayachee remained cautious, noting that while the minister’s vision may be well-intentioned, a significant amount of work still needed to be done before load shedding can finally stop.
“By Eskom’s own admission there are still inherent risks in the Eskom generation system that could lead to forced outages and hence potential load shedding.”
David Walwyn, Professor at the Graduate School of Technology Management at Pretoria, expressed concern over the inherent challenges in Eskom’s energy recovery plan.
He explained that the “extensive maintenance” required under the Energy Recovery Plan means that “a lot of capacity is offline, 20% of total capacity,” which leaves no backup in case of unforeseen breakdowns.
Walwyn believes that as a result, “we have to have load shedding.” He acknowledged that the minister is hopeful but warned that “it will take another couple of years” before load shedding can be fully overcome.
While Walwyn praised the minister’s transparency, he voiced his concerns about Eskom’s leadership: “I have a lot of confidence in the minister, he is very transparent...but I’m not that comfortable with Eskom...they obscure the truth.” He also pointed out that the country is “still living on old outdated structures.”
Peter Becker, former Director of the National Nuclear Regulator, also weighed in on the challenges within the energy sector, specifically concerning the reliability of nuclear plants.
He cited the example of Koeberg Unit 1, which was down for a year in 2023 for maintenance, and was recently taken offline again in February 2025 for further work.
Koeberg Station number 1 was recently taken offline again in February 2025 for further work. Koeberg Station number 1 was recently taken offline again in February 2025 for further work.
Image: Armand Hough / Independent Newspapers
He explained that nuclear reactors, even when operating optimally, must be taken offline every 18 months for about six weeks for refuelling.
Becker also noted the difficulties in relying on an old plant like Koeberg, which faces extended downtime.
“No renewable source is planned to be offline for such extended periods, and so does not need the long-term 100% backup which nuclear reactors require,” he added.
Melusi Tshabalala, CEO of Mesama Energy, expressed cautious optimism about the minister’s comments, noting that the government has made significant strides in reducing load shedding over the past 10 months.
“For about 10 months, there has been no load shedding in SA, which suggests to us that there’s a lot of positive work that has been done,” he said.
Tshabalala credited the recent focus on the power plants themselves, though he acknowledged that the system operator will probably have to have additional elements to their maintenance strategy which may further impact achieving the end of load shedding.
Experts called o Eskom to become more transparent with the country. Experts called o Eskom to become more transparent with the country.
Image: Supplied
He highlighted the ongoing challenges in meeting the demand for power due to the country’s ageing fleet of power stations and limited transmission capacity.
“Developing a utility-scale power plant can take at least 24 months, even then, depending on the type of technology chosen,” Tshabalala explained.
“The government plans to have over 100GW of installed capacity, and we are currently sitting at around 50% of that approximately.”
He concluded that while there has been progress through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPP), the country is still facing “significant challenges” in achieving the necessary base load.
The consensus among these energy experts is clear: while there has been some progress in reducing load shedding, the goal of fully ending it by the end of March 2025 is highly ambitious.
The country still faces significant challenges, including the age and reliability of Eskom’s power plants, the complexity of the energy mix, and the need for substantial investment in infrastructure.
tracy-lynn.ruiters@inl.co.za