World Test Champions permutations ... How the Proteas can qualify for Lord’s final

FILE - The Proteas head into Test series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan on the back of a 2-0 series win over Bangladesh. Picture: Tanvin Tamim / AFP

FILE - The Proteas head into Test series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan on the back of a 2-0 series win over Bangladesh. Picture: Tanvin Tamim / AFP

Published Nov 21, 2024

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Test cricket will have its rightful place in the sun this summer as teams compete for a place in the 2025 World Test Championship final.

The Proteas are right there in the mix, chasing a first Test Championship final appearance. But as many as five teams still have a realistic chance of making the showpiece match at Lord’s in June 2025, making every match a do-or-die affair.

The Proteas have four Test matches remaining in the current cycle. They take on Sri Lanka in a two-match series from November 27, before playing Pakistan in the traditional Boxing Day and New Year’s slots.

In Australia, the top two sides on the points table — Australia and India — will clash in a marquee five-game Border-Gavaskar Test series beginning November 22. The hosts will seek to secure their second successive final, while India will look to overcome the recent downturn against New Zealand and bounce back.

England and New Zealand also engage in a three-game series beginning November 28, where the Kiwis will look to make a push for Lord's.

Things are tight at the top of the ICC World Test Championship standings, with less than 10% separating the top five teams.

World Test Championship Standings and state of play

First - Australia - 62.50% of possible points

Remaining series: India (home, five Tests), Sri Lanka (away, two Tests)

Best possible finish: 76.32%

Reigning World Test Championship winners Australia regained the spot after India's series loss to New Zealand and are on track for a second consecutive appearance in the final.

However, Pat Cummins' side will likely still need to win a minimum of four of their remaining seven Tests if they are to defend the title they won in 2023.

The one advantage that Australia have over India is they have two Tests in Sri Lanka next year, meaning they could theoretically draw 2-2 with Rohit Sharma's side and stay in contention for a place in the final ahead of that trip to Asia.

Second - India - 58.33% of possible points

Remaining series: Australia (away, five Tests)

Best possible finish: 69.30%

The two-time World Test Championship runners-up were looking pretty for a place at next year's final but an unprecedented 3-0 series whitewash at home against New Zealand has hit the side's chances.

With the 25-run loss to the Black Caps in Mumbai, Rohit Sharma's team slipped below Australia and will now travel to the country next month needing to win at least four of their matches Down Under to ensure qualification.

Third - Sri Lanka - 55.56% of possible points

Remaining Series: South Africa (away, Two Tests), Australia (home, two Tests)

Best Possible Finish: 69.23%

A head-turning victory over England in the third Test in England means Sri Lanka could still make a push for a World Test Championship final berth with three more wins from their remaining four Tests.

Their task will be difficult, with two Tests scheduled in South Africa at the end of November and a further two-match series at home against reigning champions Australia in 2025.

If Sri Lanka can pinch one victory in South Africa, it could lead to a grandstand finish on home soil with the top two spots potentially still to be decided in the final series of the cycle.

Fourth - New Zealand - 54.55% of possible points

Remaining series: England (home, three Tests)

Best possible finish: 64.29%

A historic series sweep in India has bolstered New Zealand's hope of claiming a second World Test Championship title, but they still have plenty of work to do at home if they are to finish in the top two places in the standings.

The Black Caps will likely need at least one win in their remaining three Tests to try and make it through to the final. This will mean repeating their whitewash in India at home against a strong England side led by Ben Stokes.

Fifth - South Africa - 54.17% of possible points

Remaining series: Sri Lanka (home, two Tests), Pakistan (home, two Tests)

Best possible finish: 69.44%

The 2-0 series whitewash over Bangladesh has given South Africa hope of reaching next year's World Test Championship final, but they will likely need to carry on their form and win three of their four contests on home soil at the end of the year.

The two-match home series against Sri Lanka at the end of November will be the crucial one for the Proteas, as a series sweep there will boost their own chances of reaching the final and put an end to any hopes the island nation had of reaching the title decider.

Climbing to fourth in the standings after the series win, South Africa have suddenly become a genuine threat to the top teams in the standings given they have four more matches at home.

Additional reporting by the ICC

@JohnGoliath82