By Ashley Nyiko Mabasa
As the dust of 2024 settles, the political landscape emerges profoundly reshaped for 2025. In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) has fallen from its once-dominant position as a majority party, reduced to forming a Government of National Unity (GNU). In the United Kingdom, a seismic shift saw the Labour Party winning elections after the Conservative Party governed for 14 years.
These are not mere passing events but trends with significant implications for governance, society, and power dynamics. The ANC’s decline underscores the broader challenges facing liberation movements in adapting to modern political realities. Similarly, Labour’s resurgence and Trump’s re-election highlight deep-seated discontent and the electorate’s demand for change, whether it veers toward progressivism or reasserts conservatism.
Yet 2024 was not devoid of hope. In South Africa, the formation of the GNU signalled a pivotal transformation. The ANC’s drop from 57% to 40% of the vote was historic, but it opened the door for a more inclusive, if fragile, model of governance. This coalition offers a chance to rethink leadership and accountability in a nation long defined by single-party dominance.
As we enter 2025, the lessons of 2024 serve as both caution and inspiration. They remind us that no political force is unassailable, that economic turmoil can recalibrate priorities, and that adversity can spark renewal. The question is no longer whether these shifts will affect us—they will. The challenge lies in harnessing them to forge a more just and equitable political order.
On political landscape shift: GNU
It is commendable that ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa has maintained confidence and steadfast leadership in guiding the Government of National Unity (GNU). While critics have labelled the GNU as anti-revolutionary and insufficiently progressive in advancing the interests of the predominantly Black majority, it also presents an opportunity for the ANC to regain its strategic influence as a leader of society. Secretary General Fikile Mbalula has referred to the GNU as a strategic setback for the ANC, but its formation offers a critical moment for reflection. It allows the ANC to reframe its approach to building a national democratic society while collaborating with other political parties—many of which, while not explicitly progressive, share a commitment to democracy and unity.
Yet, the 2025 political landscape reveals potential challenges ahead. Factional struggles within the ANC threaten the stability of the GNU, with some actors seeking to dismantle it for personal political gain. Such moves could splinter the ANC and create an environment ripe for leadership battles within the party. Economically, South Africa’s challenges are stark. The country’s economy has stagnated since 2019, with an average growth rate of just 0.8%. Infrastructure is deteriorating, GDP per capita has declined for over a decade, and the population is growing at 1.6% annually. With an unemployment rate of 34%, the ANC must prove its relevance and effectiveness within the GNU by prioritising job creation and improving service delivery.
The coming year will also test the durability of the GNU. Debates are likely to intensify over whether to restructure the GNU to include the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and MKP, potentially displacing current allies such as the DA and IFP. Such a shift could destabilise the coalition and challenge the leadership of both Ramaphosa and Mbalula. Ultimately, 2025 will be defined by the ANC’s ability to navigate these competing pressures. President Ramaphosa carries the weight of ensuring the GNU’s success, while Mbalula’s role as Secretary General will be pivotal in managing internal factions. The year ahead promises to be a critical test for the ANC and its vision for South Africa.
United Kingdom (UK) and Labour Party
The Conservative Party’s fall from power after 14 years marks the end of an era in British politics. Since 2010, the party had defied political convention, winning four consecutive elections and maintaining an extended grip on government. But now, with the Labour Party’s resounding victory, the focus shifts to whether the new administration can deliver on its promises—chiefly, to repair the battered public sector. Years of austerity have left public schools and the National Health Service (NHS) in disarray, and the Labour government faces the daunting task of reversing these trends.
Yet, questions remain over how transformative Labour’s victory will truly be. For South Africa, the direct political impact may be minimal, but economic ripples are likely. British investments in sectors like mining, finance, and technology could face headwinds, particularly if Labour implements changes to taxation and public spending. While many anticipate a rollback of austerity, such policies could influence the flow of British capital into South Africa, adding a layer of uncertainty to already strained markets.
The Labour Party’s ascent also sparks broader ideological debates. Its economic policies may reshape Britain’s domestic priorities, but they will also provoke discussion over the global implications for British businesses. For South Africa, this raises a critical question: how will the Labour government balance its progressive agenda with its role as a key trading partner and investor? As 2025 unfolds, these dynamics will be closely watched. The Labour Party’s approach to governance, both at home and abroad, will not only test its credibility but also define its legacy in a world that remains economically and politically interconnected.
Donald Trump political scene
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election and return to the White House is a defining event, poised to shape global affairs in the coming months. In 2025, Trump will remain a dominant figure on the political stage. The ongoing Iraq War, a conflict that has already cost the United States over $2 trillion and countless lives, is expected to intensify under his leadership. The war, widely regarded as a grave crime against humanity, continues to cast a long shadow over US foreign policy.
Trump’s stance on the Middle East suggests an escalation of hostilities, though it remains unclear whether this will stem from his own decisions or broader Republican foreign policy. In a recent social media post, Trump described Syria as “a mess,” asserting that the US should distance itself from the region. Yet, his actions often contradict his rhetoric, leaving the future of American involvement uncertain.
In Eastern Europe, Trump has promised to broker peace in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, a pledge that will test his leadership in 2025. Ending the war would align with his interests, as the Biden administration’s commitment of over $178 billion in military aid and intelligence support since 2022 has drawn significant domestic criticism. With the US grappling with a $35 trillion national debt and an annual deficit exceeding $1 trillion, many Americans question the sustainability of funding wars abroad. The financial support for Ukraine is nearly equivalent to the annual budget of the US Marine Corps, making it a focal point of domestic and global politics alike.
For South Africa, Trump’s presidency brings new uncertainties. A faction within the Republican Party is pressuring him to isolate South Africa due to its non-aligned stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. This includes proposals to terminate South Africa’s participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Losing AGOA privileges would have significant economic repercussions, with South Africa’s GDP projected to decline by 0.06%. Automotive exports, a key component of the country’s trade basket, would face higher tariffs, further straining the economy.
Finally, in 2025, the debate over South Africa’s inclusion in AGOA is set to become a contentious issue in US-Republican politics. The stakes are high, not just for South Africa’s economy but also for its strategic position on the global stage.
* Ashley Nyiko Mabasa holds two Masters degrees in Economic and Labour Sociology and Master of Management in Public Policy both from Wits University, and is an Executive Manager in the Office of the Deputy Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources and serves as Provincial Executive Committee Member for ANC Youth League Gauteng and Head of Policy Development and Political Education.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.