South Africa’s unemployment is likely to soar if load shedding continues under a “weak government”, an economist warned.
This grim news could result in catastrophic events for South Africa.
“What I am certain of is that the country’s economic growth trajectory does not look promising,” economist Dawie Roodt said.
“It is likely the country will face higher levels of unemployment. So, even a rate of 40% might be possible if load shedding continues.”
According to PwC South Africa's Africa Economic Outlook report for 2022, the country’s unemployment rate is set to balloon to 40% by 2030.
Roodt said fixing the economy was paramount to solving the country’s unemployment crisis.
He warned as unemployment rates soar, so will poverty.
“A solution to this issue is to get the economy to grow through fixing certain enterprises, having a more efficient state, getting rid of import protections and minimum wage,” Roodt said.
He pointed to politics as the main culprit in this crisis and not the economy.
“The weak government is the biggest obstacle to economic growth.”
With the skills gap growing ever wider, in part, because of the lack of access to higher education for the majority of South Africans, the youth need to find creative ways to circumnavigate unemployment - one of these being entrepreneurship.
However, entrepreneurs also need skills to enable them to run successful businesses.
One way to develop these skills is through business incubation programmes.
“Incubators that are located where youth can access them and are connected to markets and run entrepreneurially themselves are definitely able to foster innovation and entrepreneurship while providing relevant skills,” said CEO of the South African Creative Industries Incubator (SACII), Beth Arendse.
The SACII assists entrepreneurs in the creative sector to find their feet in business with the assistance of mentors, trainers and master classes. Entrepreneurs learn vital skills that will help their entrepreneurial entities to thrive.
“In the creative industries, in particular, programmes such as ours help to normalise access for talented youth to skills development, business mentorship, support from established industry mentors and market access,” she said.
“It is this ‘normalising access’ part that is critical to help bridge gaps for emerging creatives to become self-sustainable and thrive.”
Another facet of the bleak unemployment situation in South Africa was the psychological effect it had on the youth.
Fatima Seedat, development manager at the South African Depression and Anxiety Group (Sadag), said unemployment could negatively affect the psyche of unemployed individuals.
“Increased levels of unemployment may have numerous mental health consequences on the youth, many of whom report feelings of depression, anxiety, high levels of stress, low self-worth/esteem and sadly, we find some often may turn to substance abuse,” Seedat said.
“Having an uncertain future can make many feel demotivated, and overwhelmed.”
She said Sadag received 3 000 requests for assistance from individuals daily at their call centre and counselling container.
She urged members of the public to make use of Sadag’s toll-free call centre should they need someone to talk to.
“Unfortunately, many cannot afford professional help, and there are long waiting periods to get care,” said Seedat.
“The youth should always remember to speak to someone about what they are going through, whether it is a close friend, a family member or Sadag, which is open 24 hours every day of the year. There is help and hope out there. All you need to do is reach out.”
For activist writer Lunga Mahlangu, SA can learn from how America responded to the Great Depression (a worldwide economic downturn that began in 1929 and lasted until about 1939).
With an unemployment rate of 24.9% at the time, almost 13 million Americans were without jobs.
“Lawmakers considered this to be a monumental catastrophe, and they began immediately to pass legislation in favour of employment and empowerment,” said Mahlangu.
“The National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) of 1933 was one of those laws enacted with the objective of regulating fair trade codes and collective bargaining for all labourers.”
He said that the ANC government almost follows to the tee the economic policies of that country, as the former liberation movement subscribes to the gospel of free markets and foreign direct investment (FDIs) as per the stipulations in its neo-liberal National Development Plan (NDP).
“In a Twitter space sometime back, Governor of (SA Reserve Bank) SARB, Lesetja Kganyago, said that to keep their inflation targeting objective between that 3-6%range, then unemployment rate must be at about 20%,” said Mahlangu.
“This means that they're happy to see 12.5 million people languishing in abject poverty.”
Mahlangu urged the SARB to expand its mandate to include full employment, saying that unemployment is a policy choice.
“An economy that does not create jobs cannot grow, and small businesses cannot thrive, thereby leading to a stagnancy in economic development.”
*If you are in need of help or know someone who is, please contact Sadag’s toll free call centre on 0800 567 567.
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