Eskom says sustained electricity generation capacity and sufficient emergency reserves have been the key drivers to more than 29 days without load shedding, but energy analysts say there are also other reasons at play.
Eskom said in response to BR questions that load shedding remains suspended until further notice - the utility would hold a briefing on Friday - owing to the sustained generation capacity and adequate emergency reserves.
And in contrast to some fears that the utility might be relying on its more expensive diesel powered Open Cycle Gas Turbines to keep the power on, Eskom said its OCGT’s had predominantly been used through peak demand periods through April, which is in line with the OCGT design parameters.
Although Eskom does not disclose the price it pays for diesel, it is less than what a motorist pays per litre. The SA Petroleum Industries Association said there were currently no problems in the supply of petrol and diesel to the country - some 60% of diesel is imported and 40% of petrol. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and globally had also not impacted fuel supplies to the country.
EE Business Intelligence MD and energy analyst Chris Yelland said there had been fewer unplanned breakdowns (UCLF) at Eskom recently compared to the same period last year, although there has also been increased planned maintenance outages (PCLF), compared to same period last year.
Consequently, the availability of the Eskom fleet (EAF) was similar to that of the same period last year. He said however, a key factor was that demand for Eskom grid electricity continues to decline. The total electricity produced by Eskom last year in gigawatt hours was already at a 20-year low.
The reasons for this were the weak economy, the rising price of Eskom and municipal electricity - two to three times the inflation rate for many years - which was dampening demand, more customers moving to alternative energy, while the pipeline of big renewable energy and battery energy storage projects were coming on-stream.
“All this is relieving Eskom of a burden that it has been struggling to meet over the last few years, and this is resulting in a significant reduction in the frequency and intensity of load shedding this year compared to the same period last year,” said Yelland.
Crown Prince Adil Nchabeleng, an independent energy expert, said Eskom had over the past six months spent up to three times its normal amounts on power station maintenance, which had meant fewer unplanned breakdowns.
Nchabeleng said also that even though Eskom management and Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa had specifically denied it, they had been instructed by the ANC that there should be no load shedding prior to the election.
Nchabaleng said also that low demand for Eskom power was playing its part in keeping load shedding at bay, and that this was a double edged sword for South Africans at present, as it also indicated the weak state of the economy, the fact that many foundries and smelters had moved to other countries, and that many sectors of the economy were struggling.
Yelland said there was reason for optimism in the electricity sector. The pace of reform in the electricity supply industry of South Africa was gathering momentum, driven by the need for decarbonisation and security of supply, and economic imperatives.
“There is also a growing multi-party consensus in Parliament on the passage of the long-awaited Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill. Once promulgated, the new Act will provide the necessary legal, policy, regulatory and planning framework for the envisaged reforms, and the future electricity supply industry in South Africa,” Yelland wrote on the EE Business Intelligence website.
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“In generation, we are seeing the emergence of a diversified and competitive power generation sector, comprising Eskom and former Eskom generators, PPP generators, municipal generators, hundreds of independent power producers (IPPs), and literally thousands of big, medium and small ‘prosumers’ (i.e. customers of electricity that are both producers and consumers of electricity),” he wrote.
Yelland said reforms for Eskom and the municipal electricity distribution sector still needed to be resolved.
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